The Ballon d’Or, recounted.
Seventy years of match data, scored without a single vote.
Every award, re-scored
The real winner beside the model’s. Gold marks a year the model gives away.
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1956 | Sir Stanley Matthews | Alfredo di Stéfanothin data | 16 | +2.25 |
| 1957 | Alfredo di Stéfano | Raymond Kopathin data | 2 | +0.15 |
| 1958 | Raymond Kopa | Just Fontainethin datarule decided | 3 | +0.43 |
| 1959 | Alfredo di Stéfano | Alfredo di Stéfanothin data | 1 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | Luis Suárez | Ferenc Puskásthin data | 4 | +1.59 |
| 1961 | Omar Sívori | José Águasthin data | 7 | +1.55 |
| 1962 | Josef Masopust | Jimmy Greavesthin datarule decided | 16 | +0.98 |
| 1963 | Lev Yashin | José Altafinithin data | 18 | +1.52 |
| 1964 | Denis Law | Sandro Mazzolathin data | 6 | +0.73 |
| 1965 | Eusébio | Eusébiothin data | 1 | |
| 1966 | Sir Bobby Charlton | Johan Cruyffthin data | 3 | +0.56 |
| 1967 | Flórián Albert | Johan Cruyffthin data | 48 | +2.95 |
| 1968 | George Best | George Bestthin data | 1 | |
| 1969 | Gianni Rivera | Johan Cruyffthin data | 3 | +0.80 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Gerd Müller | Gerd Müllerthin datarule decided | 1 | |
| 1971 | Johan Cruyff | Johan Cruyffthin data | 1 | |
| 1972 | Franz Beckenbauer | Gerd Müllerthin data | 10 | +2.73 |
| 1973 | Johan Cruyff | Johan Cruyffthin data | 1 | |
| 1974 | Johan Cruyff | Gerd Müllerthin data | 3 | +1.11 |
| 1975 | Oleg Blokhin | Jupp Heynckesthin data | 4 | +0.79 |
| 1976 | Franz Beckenbauer | Gerd Müllerthin data | 3 | +0.97 |
| 1977 | Allan Simonsen | Steve Heighwaythin data | 4 | +0.65 |
| 1978 | Kevin Keegan | Kenny Dalglishthin data | 44 | +3.20 |
| 1979 | Kevin Keegan | Tony Woodcockthin data | 8 | +0.71 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | Karl-Heinz Rummenigge | Karl-Heinz Rummeniggethin data | 1 | |
| 1981 | Karl-Heinz Rummenigge | Karl-Heinz Rummeniggethin data | 1 | |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Karl-Heinz Rummeniggethin data | 2 | +0.12 |
| 1983 | Michel Platini | Michel Platinithin data | 1 | |
| 1984 | Michel Platini | Michel Platinithin data | 1 | |
| 1985 | Michel Platini | Michel Platinithin data | 1 | |
| 1986 | Igor Belanov | Emilio Butragueñothin datarule decided | 14 | +0.66 |
| 1987 | Ruud Gullit | Míchelthin datarule decided | 12 | +1.56 |
| 1988 | Marco van Basten | Ronald Koemanthin data | 2 | +0.24 |
| 1989 | Marco van Basten | Marco van Bastenthin datarule decided | 1 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | Lothar Matthäus | Paolo Maldinithin datarule decided | 4 | +0.13 |
| 1991 | Jean-Pierre Papin | Dejan Savicevicthin data | 2 | +0.21 |
| 1992 | Marco van Basten | Hristo Stoichkovthin data | 2 | +0.27 |
| 1993 | Roberto Baggio | Roberto Baggio | 1 | |
| 1994 | Hristo Stoichkov | Hristo Stoichkovrule decided | 1 | |
| 1995 | George Weah | Jari Litmanen | 25 | +2.11 |
| 1996 | Matthias Sammer | Angelo Peruzzi | 15 | +0.64 |
| 1997 | Ronaldo | Ronaldo | 1 | |
| 1998 | Zinédine Zidane | Zinédine Zidane | 1 | |
| 1999 | Rivaldo | Dwight Yorke | 2 | +0.21 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Luís Figo | Thierry Henry | 3 | +0.61 |
| 2001 | Michael Owen | Giovane Élber | 6 | +0.72 |
| 2002 | Ronaldo | Raúl | 3 | +0.41 |
| 2003 | Pavel Nedved | Ronaldo | 6 | +0.78 |
| 2004 | Andriy Shevchenko | Deco | 5 | +1.18 |
| 2005 | Ronaldinho | Frank Lampard | 3 | +0.46 |
| 2006 | Fabio Cannavaro | Ronaldinho | 15 | +1.15 |
| 2007 | Kaká | Kaká | 1 | |
| 2008 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Cristiano Ronaldo | 1 | |
| 2009 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 | |
| 2011 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 | |
| 2012 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 | |
| 2013 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Arjen Robben | 4 | +0.27 |
| 2014 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Cristiano Ronaldo | 1 | |
| 2015 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 | |
| 2016 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Cristiano Ronaldo | 1 | |
| 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Cristiano Ronaldo | 1 | |
| 2018 | Luka Modrić | Cristiano Ronaldo | 12 | +1.22 |
| 2019 | Lionel Messi | Lionel Messi | 1 |
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Winner’s model rank | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Not awarded | Robert Lewandowski | ||
| 2021 | Lionel Messi | Robert Lewandowski | 5 | +0.52 |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema | Karim Benzema | 1 | |
| 2023 | Lionel Messi | Kevin De Bruyne | 3 | +0.72 |
| 2024 | Rodri | Jude Bellingham | 5 | +1.14 |
| 2025 | Ousmane Dembélé | Ousmane Dembélé | 1 | |
| 2026 | Harry Kane | Michael Olise | 2 | +0.07 |
The widest margins
Years where the winner sat furthest below the model’s pick.
| Year | Won it | Model’s pick | Real winner’s rank | Margin |
|---|
The model’s top ten
| # | Player | Score, by part | G | A | xG+xA | Good months |
|---|
Output Big games Trophies Consistency
The real vote
| Rank | Player | Model rank |
|---|
The trophy cabinet, rewritten
Awards won in reality, in grey, against awards the model hands out, in gold.
What voters actually reward
Each bar is the vote share a trait buys, holding performance fixed.
How the count works
- Output
- Goals and assists from every competitive match; expected goals from 2015. Defenders and keepers: goals conceded.
- Opponents
- Every opponent rated by an Elo computed from 294,000 results; beating strong sides counts more.
- Big games
- Knockouts of the European Cup, World Cup, Euro and Copa América. Finals count triple.
- The window
- Calendar years until 2021, August to July since. 2020 is awarded too.
- Thin data
- Logs thin out before 1993; missing league games are estimated.